One Thing About China

If there is one thing that I would most like to convey about China, it is this: China is changing rapidly.

China has had only four rulers since the Communist revolution in 1949: Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and the current leader - Hu Jintao. Most of the changes have occurred since Deng came to power in 1978--in other words, in less than 30 years.

Deng promoted "socialism with Chinese characteristics," which introduced certain aspects of capitalism into the Chinese economy. The result has been a sustained period of strong economic growth--a compound average growth rate of over 9% per year for 25 years. (The U.S. averaged 3.1% over the same period.)

Deng also introduced the "one child policy." (See this post.) The first children born under this policy are now in their 20s. I cannot predict how this policy will affect China, but it is bound to bring about change, just as the Baby Boomer generation in the West profoundly affected our society. Demographics is destiny.

China has historically been a self-contained society. Prior to the 20th century, Buddhism was one of the few outside influences to have had a significant effect on China. (Buddhism came to China from India in the 1st or 2nd century AD.) But China has recently made a deliberate effort to more fully engage with the rest of the world.

Two examples stand out. Both of these events are hugely important for China's development and integration with the world.

First, in 1986 China began negotiations to become a member of the World Trade Organization. Those negotiations took 15 years, but succeeded in 2001.

Second, in 1991 China first sought to host the Olympics, entering a bid for the 2000 Summer Olympics. China lost to Sydney, but bid again eight years later. This time China won the right to host the 2008 Summer Olympics.

Increased foreign interactions will only accelerate the pace of change.

A few things from our trip that highlight the fact that China has recently been changing rapidly:

• The China Ag Trade Fair that we attended was only the 5th such event.


• The Dairy Development Seminar that we attended was only the 5th such event.


• The tremendous amount of new building construction that we saw.


• The relatively new infrastructure we saw: roads, airlines, airports, cell phone towers.

Indeed, our trip itself is evidence that China--and the world--is changing. Perhaps as little as ten years ago an agricultural trade mission from Vermont to China would have been neither welcome nor relevant. Today it is both.

One thing to keep in mind: Rapid change may at times unfold in unexpected directions.